Amanda Ripley Author of The Unthinkable

The other day, I drove out to Frederick, MD. This time, blissfully, my trip had nothing whatsoever to do with anthrax.

I went to Frederick to meet John Bryan, a man who knows more about human behavior in fire than anyone alive. Or at least, anyone I have ever met. Jake Pauls had asked me to come out to meet John and do an interview for posterity. Until then, I had only known the man through his work—which I’d spent days poring over at the National Fire Academy and in the Library of Congress.

John met us at the door and very graciously sat for hours while we talked about his life and his work. This is a man who who started fighting fires when he was in grade school. John organized a group of boys in Somerset, MD, where his family lived, to put out brush fires caused by coals falling from the B & O steam engines that ran along the edge of town. The Rinky Dink Fire Department, as it was known, used brooms to stamp out the flames—until the boys eventually got a hand-operated pump from the Bethesda Fire Department. This was clearly before the lawyers took over emergency management.

Anyway, John grew up and became a professional firefighter. But he soon noticed was that the most important moments of a fire were the moments before the firefighters arrived. That was when regular people made crucial decisions about whether to fight the fire, call the fire department or flee. Their behavior mattered more than anything else—and yet professional firefighters spent a lot more time talking about equipment and technology and the physics of fire.

John began to research human behavior in fire, one of the first to seriously investigate what people do in actual fires. He went on to become a professor of fire protection engineering at the University of Maryland, where he mentored legions of young engineers and published books and articles about behavior in fire. It was a pleasure to meet him.

When I got to the office today, there was a big sack of books waiting for me from my publisher. Inside, I found the Brazilian, Korean and Swedish versions of The Unthinkable. I’d never seen them before, so it was kind of a cool moment. For sure, my favorite of the the three is the Swedish version (in irridescent green).

That said, I have no idea what they say. I can only hope for the best.

Craig Fugate has been nominated by Pres. Obama to head up FEMA. My first instinct is: Damn. Nice pick. My second instinct is: God help him.

Fugate is a man who tells it like it is. He was a firefighter before he became an emergency manager and rose through the ranks to become head of Florida’s Division of Emergency Management in 2001.

The last time I saw him was in the summer of 2006 when he spoke on a panel alongside (get this) the then-disgraced former FEMA head Mike Brown at the University of Colorado, Boulder, Natural Hazards Workshop.

He was polite towards Brown, but he didn’t hold back when he talked about FEMA and emergency management in general.

Some choice excerpts from his comments that day:

“We have created a nation of victims. We have disempowered people to take responsibility for their own survival. They expect someone to save them….”

“...I believe in an open society. If citizens know they have toxic chemicals downtown, they’re more likely to say, ‘Why don’t you move the chemicals?’”

“...I get asked a lot, ‘Should FEMA be in or out [of the Department of Homeland Security.] That’s the wrong question.”

Fugate went on to say that Congress needs to obsess more over outcomes—what do we want FEMA and other agencies to do? What are the metrics of success, and have we met those metrics? And it should obsess less over process (who sits at which table when). I couldn’t agree more.

But what I like most about Fugate is that he calls people “survivors” instead of “victims.” He is stone-cold honest about how little the feds can do in big disasters—and how much depends on the training, attitude and expectations of regular people.

Unlike Brownie, Fugate has serious street cred. He has spent his entire life helping people avoid, contain and respond to all manner of catastrophes. He led Florida through four major hurricanes in 2004, and he is hugely popular among state and local emergency types for his wisdom and straight talk. If he is confirmed, he may actually have a shot at restoring the tortured relationship between the federal government (which writes the checks) and the state and locals (who do everything else).

We’ll see. I hope he doesn’t come to his senses and change his mind… 

Full disclosure: Fugate liked my book, back before he was famous.

When I first heard the news of Turkish Airlines flight 1951 crashing upon landing at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport, I couldn’t help but think: “Another one?”  Indeed, the crash of Flight 1951 makes for three plane accidents in an incredibly short period.  With the onslaught of survivor stories and the revolving cycle of disturbing images, it’s hard not to let it go to straight to your amygdala.

But it’s important to remember the silver lining in all of this.  Two out of three of these accidents had few or no fatalities.  Experts (along with another well-known contributor to this blog) insist that the majority of airplane crashes are survivable.

Though Flight 1951 split into three pieces, the plane did not catch fire, ensuring that the majority of passengers were able to escape with minimal injuries.  As we well know, there are many factors that contribute to surviving any type of accident.  Worrying about plane accidents, however, can be scratched off the “To Do” list.  According to authorities quoted on MSBC.com, “commercial flying is at its safest in a 100-year history.”

Tara Parker-Pope writes today that waiting for biopsy results affects stress hormone levels just as much as finding out you’ve got cancer. A new study shows that women waiting on breast biopsy results had abnormal cortisol profiles equivalent to women who had been told they had cancer.

I never fail to be amazed by the power of stress hormones. In this case, cortisol. Cortisol is some powerful stuff, and it shows up whether or not it is really needed. When it surges through your system, it raises your blood pressure, lowers your immunity to illness and makes it tough to think, among other things. It also helps you in a few ways (or it would help you if you were getting attacked by a predator…instead of waiting for a doctor to call you back). You don’t feel pain as acutely and you get a shot of energy should you need to run screaming from the room.

It’s a good reminder that the brain loathes uncertainty more than nearly everything else… more (almost) than cancer. Maybe that’s why people who feel like they have control over their lives (whether they do or not—remember, it’s the perception that matters) tend to perform better in disasters and recover more fully afterwards. They also tend to live longer. They are probably nicer, too. And they probably have great teeth. Damn those people!