Amanda Ripley Author of The Unthinkable

The Chinese version of The Unthinkable will go on sale in November 2008.

Scientists have now determined that the chance of one or more maginitude 6.7 or larger quakes happening in California over the next 30 years is 99.7%. That is to say, it’s definitely going to happen. Put it on your calendar, and start shopping for shoes.

So then what? Earthquake survival is not intuitive. Running outside (which some research has shown men might be more likely to do than women) is a bad idea. Doorways are not necessarily the sweet spot we once thought they were. And after the shaking stops, turning off the gas to your house may not always be the best way to go.

In other words, the best things to do are not what you might expect—or what you might vaguely remember from your 5th grade health class. For a quick refresher, try taking this smart little quiz. (Warning: The intro music is so annoying that I actually think it might be meant to simulate the stress of a real quake. Save yourself! Turn down your volume. The test is worth it.) handy quiz. (With thanks to Tenrec for providing a new link and quiz to replace the old, now-defunct one.)

A new study in the April 30 issue of The Journal of Neuroscience shows that people who drink moderately have increased activity in the part of their brains involved in rewards—and less activity in the parts used to detect threats.

Here’s what happened: 12 healthy people lay down at the National Institutes on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. Half were given IVs with alcohol. Half were given saline solution. (This study could have been much more fun than it was, admittedly.) Afterwards, while hooked up to brain imaging equipment, they all looked at pictures of people who looked afraid (images that traditionally bother human beings). In response to the scary pictures, the buzzed subjects showed less anxiety—and more excitement in the brain’s reward-system.

In fact, just getting free stuff period been shown to decrease people’s sensitivity to risk. That’s another reason to give free drinks to gamblers at casinos. But enough about casinos. They clearly get this already. The larger point is that our risk calculus is probably more malleable than we think—which could be an asset if we exploited it in pursuit of our own best interests.

The Unthinkable will hit stores in Brazil in June 2008, just after the US release. The publisher is Globo.

The Unthinkable hits the UK on July 3, 2008.

This is exciting since so much of the book relies on the wisdom of British researchers and survivors. The UK has long been way ahead of most places, including the States, when it comes to fire safety. That’s partly because London burned down twice—in 1212 and 1666. Nothing focuses the research funding like a mass-casualty disaster.

To understand computer models of crowd behavior in fire, I met with Ed Galea, director of the Fire Safety Engineering Group at the University of Greenwich in London. Galea is a smart guy who stubbornly insists we can get better—much better—at designing buildings, ships and airplanes with real people in mind. We met in his office one summer day and spoke without interruption for four hours, surrounded by piles of videotapes, books and photos of tragedies gone by.