Amanda Ripley Author of The Unthinkable

I just watched Bill O’Reilly “interview” one of the survivors of the US Airways crash on Fox. I am reluctant to use the word interview since that would imply asking a question and then listening to the answer before talking again. But let’s put that aside for now.

Like most people, O’Reilly was absolutely convinced that there must have been panic and mayhem aboard the flight. He repeatedly questioned the survivor, a man who had barely dried off from a crash landing in the Hudson several hours before, about whether people were screaming and pushing on the plane. When the man explained that no, people had been generally calm and helpful, O’Reilly was amazed. He asked again and again why people had not become violent and hysterical, until the survivor agreed it was shocking indeed.

The truth is, in almost every disaster I have studied, people treat each other with kindness and respect. Violence and panic are extremely rare. An instant camraderie springs up between strangers—on a sinking ship or a bombed-out subway car. That is the rule, not the exception.

After the terrorist bombings on the London transit system on July 7, 2005, which killed 52 people and wounded hundreds, some victims actually resisted leaving the tube station. “I needed the [others] for comfort,” one survivor explained to U.K. psychologist John Drury. “I felt better knowing that I was surrounded by people.”

One study of U.S. mining disasters found that miners tended to follow their groups even if they disagreed with the group’s decisions. Grown men trapped underground would rather make a potentially fatal decision than be left alone.

In other airplane crashes, passengers have risked their lives because they climbed over seats to regroup with the rest of their family before evacuating. In skyscraper fires, people making arduous journeys down hundreds of stairs will tend to insist that those entering the stairwell from lower floors go ahead of them. In fact, I’ve yet to meet a 9/11 survivor who didn’t help or receive help from a stranger on the way out of the towers.

Why don’t we turn into raving maniacs? Because it is in our interest to be nice to each other. Under threat, we need each other more than ever.

When I saw the tail sticking up out of the water, I had a terrible feeling. Today’s crash of US Airways flight 1549 in New York was unnervingly similar to the crash of Air Florida flight 90, almost exactly 27 years ago to the day. Air Florida flight 90 crashed into the Potomac River in Washington, DC, on a frigid day, just moments after take-off. It was extremely difficult for people to get to the surface before the cabin filled with water and sank—and human beings do not generally do well in extremely cold water. Back then, of the 79 people onboard, 74 died. 

But this would be different. Everyone made it off the US Airways flight. And I realize now I should have been more optimistic. Most people involved in serious plane accidents survive, for one thing. And for another, we know that people in disasters can perform very well if they are given clear directions.

As soon as I heard everyone had survived, I knew the crew had done a tremendous job. We now know that the pilot managed to warn the passengers to “brace for impact” before the plane hit the Hudson River. Getting some warning—any warning—is crucial for people in all kinds of disasters.

Most of us become incredibly docile and obedient under extreme duress, especially in an unfamiliar environment like an airplane. The brain does not handle new information well in this state. Thinking becomes extremely challenging. One of the biggest dangers is that we will shut down and stop moving altogether—a phenomenon reported in every kind of disaster, from sinking ships to plane crashes to terrorist bombings. We go into a sort of stupor—not unlike animals playing dead—and it does not serve us well in modern calamities like plane crashes.

But there is good news: all the research shows that we respond very well to clear, aggressive orders. Flight attendants are now trained to scream at passengers to “get out!” in airplane evacuations. And it works—helping to snap us out of this stupor and get us moving. (Research has shown that if they don’t scream these orders, they have the same effect as if they were not there at all—which is to say, no effect.)

Look, the truth is, plane crashes are extremely rare. And water landings are so rare they are almost not worth talking about. But when they do happen, plane crashes are more survivable than we expect. And our behavior matters a great deal. Of all passengers involved in serious plane accidents between 1983 and 2000, 56 percent survived. (“Serious” is defined by the National Transportation Safety Board as accidents involving fire, severe injury, and substantial aircraft damage.)

It’s good to be reminded that all is not lost if you happen to be unlucky enough to be in a plane crash. Remember: the more information you have given your brain before anything goes wrong, the better you will do. Translation: read the safety briefing cards and listen to the flight attendants. The National Transportation Safety Board has found that passengers who read the safety information card are less likely to get hurt in an emergency.

In a plane crash at Pago Pago in 1974, all but 5 of the 101 passengers died. All the survivors reported that they had read the safety information cards and listened to the briefing. They exited over the wing, while other passengers went toward other, more dangerous but traditional exits and died.

I found myself unable to blink (or even breathe) as I read today’s full-page New York Times ad for the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower in Mumbai. I understand it’s a business, and it’s important and admirable that it reopened so quickly after terrorists killed dozens of guests and workers. I understand that no one wants to mention dead people in an ad like this. But still.

“We’re bringing back the champagne flutes…impeccable butler service, luxury Jaguar transfers and splendid suites.”

Really? No mention of the courage it takes to rebuild and return to life in the shadow of grief? No talk of forging ahead—without forgetting? I don’t know the right way to advertise for a hotel after a terrorist attack, and it does seem like the Taj and its many dedicated employees have done a remarkable job of mourning and repairing under enormous strain. But willful omission may not be the solution.

Granted, his country is at war. But it was striking, listening to Israeli Ambassador Sallai Meridor talk at George Washington Hospital today, how little mention was made of any long-term strategy for a better, more peaceful future. I don’t know if it was cynicism, realism or myopia, but it was remarkable.

In his talk, which was set up by GW’s Homeland Security Policy Institute, Meridor detailed a three-point plan for combating terrorism generally and in Gaza specifically:

1. Be realistic. “Recognize that this is a threat that doesn’t have an easy answer.” A fair point, and something U.S. leadership has totally failed to do here. “The goals you set for yourself cannot and should not be total victory—total defeat of the enemy. You have to create a sense in your society of being ready to be patient, to persevere, to be able to overcome terror, to continue the routine of life with terror.”

2. Take military action: “[You] need a mix of partial deterrence, partial defense and defensive prevention.” In other words, build fences, hope, pray and pay for a better missile defense system, and pre-emptively strike at your enemies (or as the Ambassador so eloquently put it: “You must get as many of them as possible before they hit you.”)

3. Get international cooperation. On this point, Meridor was less passionate and more vague. He spoke of “encouraging internal discourse, an authentic one, that would minimize the recruiting grounds on which they are thriving.” Aha. This would seem to be an exceptionally important point in an asymmetric war. Otherwise, you can (as Israel has proven time and again) obliterate the enemy and intimidate your neighbors—and you will still see homemade rockets dropping from the sky.

Forty-five minutes into his talk, Meridor touched on the importance of a long-term strategy for reducing the appeal of terrorism, but with breathtakingly little dedication: “Another thing I forgot to mention [emphasis mine]: we must find a way ot minimize this hatred [that is] spreading and at the same time offer another type of education and engagement for a young boy or girl.”

During the Q&A period, almost all of the questioners pressed the Ambassador to say more—to articulate a long-term vision for the campaign in Gaza and for reducing the spread of radicalism generally. He did not seem interested. “We do not have a grand political scheme for which we are fighting in Gaza. We were forced to defend ourselves and are doing that in order to provide for better security for our people. Period.”

To close the event, writer and professor Yonah Alexander thanked the Ambassador and suggested he come back one day to continue the conversation—to discuss for example how to combat an intellectual culture of death with a culture of life. An excellent idea. Sign me up, I thought. Meridor chuckled and said, “For that, you will have to find an intellectual. I am a diplomat.”

They are now selling commemorative Obama subway cards in the Metro here. True story. For just twice the price of regular Metro cards! Or, you can pay even more on eBay!

I don’t think an image has been so thoroughly exploited for cash since the FDNY lost its logo to the street vendors eight years ago. Here’s hoping the next eight years are better.

A jury has found five men guilty of conspiring to attack the Fort Dix military base in New Jersey. I followed the trial closely because I had gotten to know so many of the main players last year. I’d spent many hours interviewing the families and the lawyers for a story on the case as a model for terrorism prosecutions going forward. In the end, I found the men themselves to be only moderately interesting; the informants—employed by the FBI to record hundreds of hours of conversations with the men—turned out to be the main story.

This decision has been a long time coming. I had expected the jury to give the government some of what it wanted but not all, and that is what happened. But I can’t say I feel safer. Here’s my take on the verdict for Time.

OK, not really. But the guy who plays him on Saturday Night Live totally digs the book! So that counts, right? Fred Armisen called the book “amazing,” and I did not even pay him to say that.

Thanks to Glynnis MacNicol for taking a survey of the few remaining famous people who read. And thanks to Fred for being so talented and smart. And handsome.

NPR’s Talk of the Nation did a segment on the Denver crash today. They kindly invited me to join them, and they also asked to hear from listeners who had survived a plane crash. Sure enough, the survivors came calling. Some interesting anecdotes about carry-on baggage and shrieking flight attendants here.