Amanda Ripley Author of The Unthinkable

It’s that time again! Hurricane predictions are out from Colorado State University. These predictions are like horoscopes: your brain knows they may be totally wrong, but there is something irresistible about them anyway.

So let’s indulge for a moment: just so you know, the CSU team now predicts a worse-than-average hurricane season, anticipating 8 hurricanes. (The average is 6.) This prediction is more dire than their December estimate because the forecasters have more data now. They make their predictions by comparing oceanic and atmospheric trends to periods before other, past hurricane seasons. They have only been wrong (about whether it will be a better or worse than average season) 13 times out of the past 58 years.

The next forecast comes out in June, which is when hurricane season begins. It’s worth staying tuned. Even though hurricane predictions are imprecise, they are better than nothing. And since we know for sure that we are in a cycle of dangerous hurricanes—and that we have placed more of our lives and property at risk than ever before because of the way we live—we should make the most of our modern advantages, such as they are.

I have a great job. I parachute into people’s lives and ask them questions. I cover risk and homeland security for Time Magazine, but I get to define the beat broadly—so broadly that I often write things that have nothing to do with anything at all.

This week, for example, I’m writing a story for dead-tree Time about the intimate details of the life of Barack Obama’s mother. I asked the man questions that are just none of my business, and he answered them. I met his sister under a palm tree in Honolulu, and we talked about their mama’s rice-paddy hat collection. I read a book about the traditions of Indonesia just to get a sense of why their mother loved the country so.

But most of the time, I write about things going wrong—about terrorist attacks, hurricanes and assorted acts of villainy. I recently wrote a book about how people behave in disasters and how we can learn to do better. I had my brain examined for signs of weakness; I interviewed a man who survived the worst sea disaster in modern European history, a woman whose wedding was cut short by one of the deadliest fires in U.S. history, and a physicist who models crowd behavior in plane crashes.

I can’t argue that the world needs another blog. I am writing this mostly because the space now exists. I am writing it because I want to share the shiny curios that I find between official stories and hear what you think.

If you’d rather hear the book than read it, the CD is available starting June 10. 

The Unthinkable will be published in Sweden by Forum in the spring of 2009.

One of the survivors profiled in the book is Kent Härstedt, a member of Sweden’s parliament who survived the worst sea disaster in modern European history. The MV Estonia ferry sunk in the Baltic Sea on the night of September 28, 1994. Härstedt patiently shared with me the detailed story of his own unlikely survival. He also talked about what he saw other people do on the ship that night, from a man who smoked a cigarette on the deck as the ship slipped deeper into the sea to the groups of people who seemed frozen, unable to move and save themselves. The tragedy killed 852 people. The story of what happened on the ship in those terrible last moments offers a remarkable glimpse into how the brain processes extreme fear and uncertainty. 

My new book, The Unthinkable, goes on sale on June 10—nine days after the start of hurricane season, appropriately enough. But if you just can’t wait (or you are my mom), you can pre-order now.

The Unthinkable will be published in Japan by Kobunsha at the end of 2008.

The Unthinkable will be published in Norway by Gyldendal in early September of 2008.