Amanda Ripley Author of The Unthinkable

College is Dead. Long Live College!

For my new Time cover story, I went back to school—learning physics 4 different ways, including for free in a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC). I had 23,000 classmates and a lot to learn.

Lesson No. 1: What happens when a luxury product becomes…free?

Minute 1: Physics 100 began with a whirling video montage of Italy, slow-motion fountains and boys playing soccer on the beach. It felt a little odd, like Rick Steves’ Physics, but it was a huge improvement over many other online classes I sampled, which started with a poorly lit professor staring creepily into a camera.

When the Udacity professor appeared, he looked as if he were about 12; in fact, he was all of 25. “I’m Andy Brown, the instructor for this course, and here we are, on location in Siracusa, Italy!” He had a crew cut and an undergraduate degree from MIT; he did not have a Ph.D. or tenure, which would turn out to be to his advantage....

 

 

When Kids Grade Teachers

My new Atlantic story is out today. This spring, I watched as a handful of DC Public Schools surveyed their own students about their teachers in a radical departure from normal procedures. It was a fascinating experiment, and one that reminded me of just how much kids know—if someone bothers to ask.

I hope this new push to use students’ opinions does not get mired in the same toxic muck we have been slinging between unions and reformers over test scores and other kinds of evaluations. Before judging this tool, it’s important to understand what it is—and what it is not. It is not a popularity contest; nor is it perfect. But I spent months studying it—in theory and in practice—and I am inspired. Please check out the story and let me know what you think.

Nubia Baptiste had spent some 665 days at her Washington, D.C., public school by the time she walked into second period on March 27, 2012. She was an authority on McKinley Technology High School. She knew which security guards to befriend and where to hide out to skip class (try the bleachers). She knew which teachers stayed late to write college recommendation letters for students; she knew which ones patrolled the halls like guards in a prison yard, barking at kids to disperse.

If someone had asked, she could have revealed things about her school that no adult could have known. Once Nubia got talking, she had plenty to say. But until that morning of her senior spring, no one had ever asked….

A Better Way

A friend just sent me this Washington Post story by Michael Alison Chandler, which I’d missed earlier. It’s useful to compare the tenor of the relationship between labor and management in Montgomery County, MD, to the vibe in Chicago… It’s like two different countries.

With a direct role in high-stakes personnel decisions, budget setting and teacher training, the Montgomery County Education Association is on the leading edge of a wave of teacher unionism that emphasizes collaboration over conflict and makes school reform a top priority….“As a union, we have to be concerned about protecting our profession, not protecting everything that breathes,” says [union boss] Chris Lloyd.

Old-School Drama

Chicago’s children are trapped in a time warp. In the year 2012, in a city where only 6 out of 10 kids graduate from high school, in the richest country in the world, local leaders shut down the schools to fight about who dissed whom first. It’s a story so familiar worldwide that it feels almost Old Testament, and it’s one that always ends badly.

Here’s my take on the situation in the Wall Street Journal.

The bottom line: there are many countries that have revolutionized their education systems. But there is no precedent for any country doing so through strikes, walk-outs or righteous indignation. Not one.

I wish there were. I have no sympathy for politicians who do not understand politics; I have no patience for the obfuscations coming from union leaders and their defenders in Chicago. If breaking the union would serve the interests of Chicago’s 400,000 students, this problem would be easy to fix.

But alas. “One of the clearest lessons looking around the world is that you can’t build a great system with pissed-off teachers,” says Benjamin Levin, a former deputy minister for education from Ontario, a place that has learned that lesson the hard way. “You can’t bludgeon your way to greatness.”

What happened in Chicago is about more than just Chicago. It’s about education reformers trying to backwards engineer a professional workforce—which is like trying to turn a rowboat into a space ship—and union leaders fighting to get back to a placid sea that no longer exists.

Making Sense of the Chicago Strike

Negotiations about teachers’ contracts happen in secret. That is madness, of course. The negotiators are making huge decisions about taxpayers’ money and kids’ lives.

Nevertheless, this shroud of secrecy helps explain why the Chicago dispute seems so confusing. Because no one can say exactly what it is about. So all kinds of misinformation floods the void, further entrenching both sides and sending reporters off in search of vapid-but-passionate quotes. (Like this one in today’s New York Times: “‘Clearly the teachers’ unions are under attack and under siege,’ said Diane Ravitch, an education historian at New York University who often defends the unions.”)

Here are 2 things we can say for sure:

1. Reporters are Getting an Important Fact Wrong

Like many teachers and parents and humans everywhere, most reporters do not understand how test scores would be used to evaluate teachers. They assume—understandably—that teachers will be judged based on how high their students score on tests. So reporters repeat claims like this one—from Chicago union president Karen Lewis:

“[U]nion president Karen Lewis, who has sharply criticized [Mayor] Emanuel, said the standardized tests do not take into account of the poverty in inner city Chicago as well as hunger and violence in the streets…..‘Evaluate us on what we do, not the lives of our children we do not control,’ Lewis said in announcing the strike.”

In fact, as you can see by reading this PDF from the web site of Chicago Public Schools, the proposed model was designed to “take into account” the poverty that Lewis mentions—and evaluate teachers on what they do, not on things they can’t control.

The algorithm compares how kids perform on a test—compared to their performance the year before. It looks at growth, not absolute scores. Then, to judge whether that growth was relatively strong or weak, the model controls for the effects of gender, race, ethnicity and poverty. So let’s say a 4th grade boy performs poorly on the end-of-year math test in Chicago. Now let’s imagine that he qualifies for free or reduced-price lunch, like most kids in Chicago. Well, his teacher could still be judged to be among the best in the city! How? Because the child’s score would be compared to his score from the previous spring—and compared to his expected score, given his demographic profile. If his score went up only a little bit, he could still have performed better than most other Chicago kids from a similar socio-economic background. See why this is complicated?

In fact, these models were designed to promote fairness and assuage union and teacher objections; but facts are secondary in education debates. (See next thing-we-know-for-sure…)

2. Nothing Good This Way Comes

There is no country in the world that has an outstanding education system and a toxic relationship with its union. There are many, many countries whose leaders have fought with their teachers’ unions, and many more who have rolled over for unions, agreeing to policies that doom children to years of boredom and incompetence. But the best results have come from places that have managed to raise the professionalism of teachers—while not going to war with them. How is this possible? Sometimes it takes a crisis; we have that in Chicago. Always, it requires a deft political hand; we don’t have that in Chicago, at least not that I can tell.

For a real-life example, consider Ontario, Canada.

Like the U.S., Canada is a decentralized system in which locals control the schools. Canadian schools are also very diverse, with a higher immigrant intake than that of the U.S. And until recently, Canadian schools were not getting great results for all kids. In Ontario in the 1990s, there were several teacher strikes—including a two week shut down in 1997. “Morale was extremely low and the relationship between the government and teachers was highly acrimonious,” as this OECD report describes in detail.

What happened? In 2003, a new leader came into power. Premier Dalton McGuinty appointed an education minister named Gerard Kennedy (a critic of the previous regime, it should be noted), and together they tried a radically new approach:

“We needed to create a new political consensus on education. the current level of politicisation of the system was taking a huge toll on public confidence. in the preceding eight years of conservative government hundreds and hundreds of hours of school had been lost to strikes and lockouts, and this level of disruption was at the core of public discontent with the system. We felt we had to change that dynamic if we were going to have any chance of successfully moving our reform agenda. We needed to re-establish trust between the government and the profession, and between school boards and teachers.”—Gerard Kennedy quoted in Lessons from PISA for the United States


Check out the report for the rest of the story, but the point is that no major improvement can occur in an atmosphere of distrust and animosity. I wish it could, but it can’t. To get past that kind of poison—while still standing up for kids’ interests—is the Holy Grail of education reform. Are the likes of Union president Karen Lewis and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel capable of such transcendence? I’d say No—if I didn’t know that 350,000 kids were counting on it.


7th in the World

The World Economic Forum released its annual rankings of global competitiveness today. The United States fell for the 4th year in a row, coming in 7th.

1. Switzerland
2. Singapore
3. Finland
4. Sweden
5. Netherlands
6. Germany
7. United States

Many things figure into a country’s economic competitiveness. And 7th is a perfectly respectable ranking (the real wailing should be reserved for Burundi, which comes in 144th out of 144 nations). But for any country, the trend is more important than the number, and the trend is not inspiring:

U.S. Competitiveness

2008:  1st

2009: 2nd

2010: 4th

2011: 5th

2012: 7th

Education matters more than it once did. It’s not a coincidence that the top 3 countries on this list also perform at the very top of the world on international math tests. Or as the report puts it, in report language:

“Workers who have received little formal education can carry out only simple manual work and find it much more difficult to adapt to more advanced production processes and techniques….Lack of basic education can therefore become a constraint on business development, with firms finding it difficult to move up the value chain by producing more sophisticated…products.”

Or as I might put it in simpler language: duh.

 

 

 

Surviving Disaster Movie

**UPDATE:The film is now available for purchase online here.**

Many of you have asked me how you can get a copy of the PBS documentary, Surviving Disaster, based on The Unthinkable. I am sorry it has taken so long to become available to the public… Maybe they were trying to build suspense? I don’t know, but I finally have an answer for you!

To buy a copy of the film, please email Chris Tiano at Santa Fe Productions at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). I’m told that if you are in North America and just want to watch it as an individual, then it will cost $24.95 plus $4.95 shipping & handling. If you are going to use it in a classroom, then it will cost $75 plus shipping for the public performance rights and so on and so forth.

Thank you to all who have expressed interest. I am insanely biased, but I loved the film. It captures the mystery and drama of human behavior in a disaster—and explains why our behavior matters—better than any TV show or film I’ve seen.

Olympic Predictions

Economists, it turns out, can predict Olympic medal counts with uncanny accuracy. They don’t get the exact figures right, but they get weirdly close to predicting the ranking of countries worldwide—well before the Opening Ceremonies.

First let’s just acknowledge that there is something irritating about this; aren’t the Olympics supposed to be games of chance and romance? Economists do not belong in the Olympics. Is no place sacred?

And yet. In June, PricewaterhouseCoopers issued an economic briefing paper (pdf here) that modeled the performance of countries based on 4 critical characteristics:

1. Population
2. Income
3. Host country
4. Whether the country was once part of the Soviet bloc

I would have guessed the first two inputs, but the last two are more surprising—and help explain the outliers in the medal counts finalized yesterday with the closing of the London Olympics.

The model made some mistakes: the U.S. won 9 fewer medals than predicted, and Japan won 10 more. But the model did predict the ranking order, more or less, prophesying that the U.S. would come in first, followed by China, Russia and Great Britain—in that order. And that is exactly what happened.

The host country, as the model had foreshadowed, got a heady boost. Why? The economists say this is partly this is due to the greater investments that countries make in their Olympic teams when they know they are going to host. I suspect other more subtle forces are at work, too; there is a great psychological advantage to playing on the home court, after all. Imagine the thrill of having all those royals cheering for you—just a short distance from all those hooligans!

But interestingly, the home-court advantage varies depending on the country (China saw a huge bump when it hosted in 2008, winning 37 more medals than it had in Athens, but Greece only won 3 additional medals compared to its performance in Sydney).

The dominance of former Soviet bloc countries might be the most mysterious pattern of all. The economists explain this as a historical relic—a lingering Cold War respect for sports and Olympic triumph that motivates countries to invest and athletes to perform. They also see this as a victory for public policy, which is kind of adorable:

“This shows that sport is one area where state planning and intervention can produce results, which still persisted in Beijing almost two decades after the fall of the Berlin wall. However…these effects are gradually fading for the ex-Soviet countries, except for China which still has a strong state policy of promoting Olympic sport.”

Of course, try as I might, I can’t help but look at this ranking of medals and compare it to the ranking of education around the world. There is not a lot of overlap; the smartest countries in the world are not necessarily the most athletic and vice versa, as the U.S. has shown time and time again.

However, there are a few countries that perform exceptionally well—in mind and body. They are not the ones that spend the most per student (or per athlete). They are the ones that care a lot about both sports and learning, for whatever combination of reasons, and have the results to prove it:

Japan (No. 6 in the world in Olympic medals 2012; No. 6 in the world on PISA math 2009)

Australia (No. 7 in the world in medals; No. 12 in the world in math)

South Korea (No. 9 in the world in medals; No. 2 in math)

Netherlands (No. 11 in the world in medals; No. 8 in math)

Compare that to the U.S: No. 1 in the world in medals…and No. 26 in math. Something doesn’t add up; and all the king’s economists and all the king’s models can’t entirely explain it, try as they might.