Amanda Ripley Author of The Unthinkable

Today’s New York Times claimed that the intensity of yesterday’s 6.3 magnitude earthquake was “rare" for Italy. Um, really? What is rare in earthquake terms?

In the last century, over 130,000 people died in Italian earthquakes. Just seven years ago, 30 people died in a 5.9 quake in southern Italy. Rare?

We tend to think in human time. To make matters worse, human time has been getting faster ever since media deadlines reached warp speed. So for us, rare means not yesterday...or the day before. But that’s no way to talk about tectonic plates. Two major fault lines carve through Italy, one going west to east and the other running north to south. It is one of the most seismically active places on Earth.

The problem with thinking about earthquakes the way we think about fashion cycles is that we can talk ourselves out of planning for them. We can convince ourselves they are random tragedies no one could have avoided.

This earthquake did not need to be as destructive as it was. Make no mistake. “In California, an earthquake like this one would not have killed a single person,” Franco Barberi, who heads a committee assessing earthquake risks at Italy’s Civil Protection agency, told reporters in L’Aquila. “Once again we are faced with the lack of control on the quality of construction.”

My old friend Michael Schaffer has a delightful new book out called, One Nation Under Dog: Adventures in the New World of Prozac-Popping Puppies, Dog-Park Politics, and Organic Pet Food. It’s about the strange and central new place that animals have taken in our lives, homes and markets. He makes the point that modern-day pets even influence life-or-death decisions about where we live and when we decide to flee.

We know that before Hurricane Katrina, many people decided to stay because they couldn’t take their dogs to shelters (a situation that has actually improved in some places). Well, the same calculus occurs in the everyday disasters you don’t read about. As Schaffer points out, research has shown that one reason women do not leave abusive households is that they can’t take their animals with them. In 2008, the American Humane Association started a new initiative to open women’s shelters to pets. At one pet-friendly shelter in Naples, Florida, 100 pets cycle through every year. In Maine, judges can now include pets in domestic-protection restraining orders, Schaffer writes.

Through most of human history, it would have been inconceivable that pets would play such a powerful role in people’s survival decisions. Animals were beloved, but they were servants above all else. Now the federal government advises people building emergency kits to include their pets’ favorite toys, treats and bedding. “Familiar items can help reduce stress for your pet.”

Listen to Schaffer talk about how we got here on NPR’s Fresh Air.

Nice piece in Nature about the way regular people use Facebook, Twitter, Flickr and whatever works to communicate within seconds of a disaster. Regular people are faster than the media, faster than the first responders.

After the Virginia Tech shooting, students used Facebook to figure out the list of the 32 fatalities a day before the university released the names. One of the first photos of US Airways Flight 1549 floating in the Hudson came from a guy on a ferry, posting to Twitter.

And one of my personal favorites: Mike Wilson, who posted to Twitter about 7 minutes after his plane crashed in Denver last year:

Holy fucking shit I wasbjust in a plane crash!
5:25 PM Dec 20th, 2008

Ugh ... My glasses fell off in the mass exodus getting off the plane ..
Can’t see very well5:57 PM Dec 20th, 2008 from twitterrific

This was crash #2 for me.
Maybe I should start taking the bus.
5:58 PM Dec 20th, 2008

The cool thing is that the very same hysterical media that breeds rumors also snuffs them out. The day after the crash, Wilson used Twitter to squelch rumors that he had been tweeting from the plane while it was on fire.

Just to clarify, I was NOT tweeting from inside a burning plane. My first tweet wasn’t sent until I was safely away from the plane.4:52 PM Dec 22nd, 2008 from twitterrific

In any case, there is huge opportunity anytime you make it easier for people to communicate in a disaster. People crave information like water, usually more, in most emergencies.

I wonder how long before DHS lawyers shut down FEMA-nominee Craig Fugate’s Twitter account? Hopefully never. This is good stuff.

# Tallahassee this morning, flying out to DC to begin briefings to prepare for Senate Confirmation 9:35 AM Mar 24th
# Made it to Atlanta, missed original flight, maybe DC tonight, wonder if bags make it?2:48 PM Mar 24th
# No bag - great start in DC, the future of things to come? 5:39 PM Mar 24th

The Unthinkable came out in the UK in paperback today! Many thanks to my friends at Arrow Books for doing such a fine job. 

The Red River seems to be retreating, but Fargo residents are staring down a fierce snow storm (14-inches of snow and wind-whipped waves are among the biggest concerns), which could worsen flooding.

Why is this happening? And how could things be different? It seems that Fargoans decided long ago that the Red River wouldn’t deter them from building homes along the river. Development has flourished around the river, despite residents’ misgivings.  John Clement, a long-time Fargo resident, told the Canwest News Service: “Fargo is just plain flat. Really, nobody should live here.”

But, they do.  And it’s unlikely they’ll move after the current threat of flooding has passed.  The New York Times reports yesterday that Fargo residents were unreceptive to preventative plans after the 1997 flood: ”Plans had been in the works for better flood control measures, but they have been snagged and stalled, said Mayor Dennis Walaker, by residents who complained about “how the project might block their views, might change the way their backyards looked.”

But if you are going to take a risk and have a nice view, you should get insurance.  Shockingly few of the locals have done so.

Perhaps flooding of the Red River can’t be entirely prevented (after all, this is an area so flat that preventative measures can’t compete with geography), but it’s pretty clear that much more can be done to prevent all-out disasters.  Federal money is not the only answer.

North Dakota residents are bracing themselves for a possible 41.2 foot river swell. Fortunately, the people in charge seem to understand the value of regular people.  And regular people are out in force. One volunteer coordinating center had so many volunteers they had to turn people away.  As Nancy Pelosi said on the House floor yesterday:

“North Dakotans are no stranger either to the ideal of neighbors helping neighbors. Through the weekend and early parts of this week, thousands of people—including high school and college students, National Guardsmen, women, and our own Congressman Earl Pomeroy, among many others—have stood shoulder-to-shoulder, filling sandbags to protect Fargo and other cities from the dangers of rising waters. Others have come together to offer shelter to those forced to leave their homes.

As of late last night, Fargo residents and out-of-town volunteers had filled over 1 million sandbags—over 1 million sandbags—and they aren’t stopping. I salute the work of these Americans coming together in common purpose in this time of need. While there is and will be a significant federal role assisting those impacted, the work of the community is the first line of defense.”

With the worst of the flooding yet to come, it’s a waiting game for now.  As Fargo, North Dakota officials planned to pass out evacuation materials Thursday, Mayor Dennis Walaker was feeling pretty good: “Are we confident we’re going to beat this?” Walaker said. “Yes, we are. But we need to have contingency plans in place.”

All over the country, programs are being cut, buildings are being abandoned. To save money, people need to make hard choices, and some of them will be wrong.

What you don’t often hear are the ways that regular people are creating new things to save the old ones, one YouTube video at a time. Over the past month, my friend Suzy has harangued her friends, pestered her neighbors, enlisted her children, spoken at rallies, organized petitions, and driven bureaucrats to the brink of despair to hold onto her neighborhood nature center in Arlington, VA. The people in this little community now know each other a little better, and the kids now understand the civilized tedium of a county board public meeting.

We’ll find out what happens in the next week or so, but I think it’s safe to say that Suzy and her neighbors will come out of this more resilient than they were before. Go Suzy Go!