Smallpox Imagined
OK, so a smallpox epidemic is not something you want to visualize. How about a dirty bomb? Not so much.
But humor me for just a second. I want to share with you a report that a wise man sent to me earlier today. It came out a while ago, but for some reason I had never heard of it. It’s a really powerful study of the huge disconnect between emergency plans—and people’s real plans. A case study of what happens when emergency plans are not written with the public in mind.
The study found that plans to respond to these emergencies won’t work because people will not react the way planners want them to. In a smallpox outbreak, only 43% of the population said they would follow instructions to go to a public site to be vaccinated. In a dirty bomb explosion, only 59% of the population said they would stay inside the building they were in for as long as officials told them.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Redefining Readiness study found that the public’s reluctance to follow instructions is not due to ignorance, recalcitrance, or panic. Quite the contrary, most people have solid, common-sense reasons for their behavior. Because current plans have been developed without the direct involvement of the public, they don’t account for all of the risks people would face. As a result, the plans make it unnecessarily difficult for many people to decide on the best course of action to protect themselves and their family. Even worse, the plans inadvertently create serious and unnecessary risks for millions of people.
You always have to be cautious when you are looking at polls that ask people what they intend to do…at some distant, unimaginable point in the future. People don’t know for sure until they get there. But I still found the report valuable, and I wish every emergency planner had a copy on his nightstand.
Debra Holland said on September 15, 2008 at 2:38 am
I’m a corporate crisis/grief counselor in Los Angeles. Friday brought us the news of Hurricane Ike and the metrolink train crash. One of my personal tasks this weekend was to gather information for a newsletter to send out, detailing ways company employees and management could emotionally prepare for disasters and cope with their aftermath. Coincidentally, a bookseller friend drew my attention to The Unthinkable. I read it straight through. THANK YOU for such a valuable and interesting resource. I’m going to mention this book in my newsletter, tell my friends, family, clients, and students about it, and give it out as Christmas gifts.
George A. Peters Jr. said on September 17, 2008 at 1:01 pm
The Unthinkable should be a “must read” for all teachers in k-12 schools. The children they are responsible for and are with more than some family members, will gain valuable insight on how they may, or may not react during an emergency. I have conducted dozens of evacuation drills before and since 9/11 and amazed that many people still take the drills as a huge inconvenience to their routine. Teachers included!!! Great job bringing attention to a critical aspect of everyone’s life….reacting correctly to save your life. You can’t save someone else unless you save yourself first.
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