Swine Flu: The Sequel
One of the most annoying features of a pandemic flu is that it is never officially over. And this one is just getting started. I spent the day submerged in the Flu Summit held at NIH, just outside of DC. I can think of more fun things to do, but it was a helpful primer on where things stand. So I have good news and bad.
Good news: So far, this flu seems pretty stable in the southern hemisphere. It doesn’t seem to be getting more virulent. Which means it probably won’t wipe out all of humanity--not now anyway. Woo hoo! Also, it means that we can cook up a vaccine before the flu goes changing on us.
Less major but still vaguely good news: Obama called in from Italy for a quick rah rah and sent 3 cabinet secretaries to represent. None of them said anything particularly memorable, but it is a sign that they are taking this seriously--despite all the other things they are taking seriously at this cluttered moment.
Bad news: H1N1 is everywhere and targeting the young. An estimated 1m Americans have been infected. Of the dead, the vast majority are under age 65. So even if H1N1 stays at its current, relatively low fatality rates, that could still mean thousands of dead or hospitalized children and adults in the months ahead.
Prognosis: Vaccine trials should start in August. If all goes well, vaccinations could begin mid-Oct. It seems likely the first phase of a vaccine will target kids, pregnant women, health care workers and people with “underlying conditions"--which is defined in this case to mean lots and lots of people (i.e. people with asthma, diabetes, obesity, etc.) But there are still hundreds of things no one yet knows: like how much vaccine people will need, how it will be distributed, and when.
Bottom line: Influenza is notoriously unpredictable, so everything will depend on government types (states and locals especially) and the public adapting quickly. To stay in fighting shape, I’d go here, here and here on a regular basis. Not very satisfying, as far as bottom lines go… OK, I’ll try again: I’m getting the feeling that schools will be Ground Zero--the epicenter of infection, disruption, mitigation and vaccine delivery. Prepare to hear a LOT about schools… and given the way American schools are run, prepare for some places to work miracles and other places to stink it up in a major way.
Mike said on July 11, 2009 at 5:42 am
I have just finished, “The Fourth Horseman"- a book about America’s first bio weapons attack during the First World War. Surprisingly perhaps, the target of the attack was not humans but horses and mules used logistically in Europe. I thought you might find it interesting.
John said on July 19, 2009 at 12:15 am
I’m on my way home from 10 days in S-E Asia where in many spots a significant number of people are wearing cotton face-masks (in places where they are frequently worn anyway, apparently the usage is substantially more than ‘normal’). It mght seem a bit spooky and extreme, but wouldn’t a mandatory week-long face mask decree go a long way to stopping transmission? As you noted, I can’t imagine what we’ll do if we don’t nip this before school starts.
Amanda Ripley said on July 21, 2009 at 11:59 am
Thanks for the note, John! Interesting dispatch from SE Asia. I agree that face masks are totally spooky.
I also agree it would be worth it if it stopped transmission. Unfortunately, nobody really knows yet if facemasks help much with H1N1. In general, facemasks just help stop droplets from being spread by the person wearing them. They are not designed to protect other people from breathing in very small particle aerosols that may contain viruses (you need a respirator for that). And one of the highest risk groups--children--would be least likely to wear the masks consistently.
Or maybe not...Did you see kids wearing them in Asia, I wonder? I’m sure any number of corporate sponsors would be happy to festoon the masks with cartoon characters… In any case, if anyone wants more info, here is what the CDC says at facemasks and the Swine Flu: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/masks.htm
Manuel said on July 23, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Hey Amanda. How’s it going? Well you may have heard that the first test of the swine flu vaccine is being done in Australia.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/07/21/australia.swine.flu.vaccine/index.html
anti cellulite Health said on August 11, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Use Gelsemium 30 three doses a day for one day. If the fever is running high use Rhus Tox 1M one dose. Swine flu is more akin to human flu and Gelsemium will not allow it to advance for more than one day, though it may take a couple of days for you to recover. No need to get scared. Swine flu is fatal only if it is allowed to advance into the pneumonia stage. Most of the medicines in homeopathy are good for flu as well as for pneumonia, and therefore the comments that it will be allowed to reach the pneumonia stage.
Symptoms said on September 30, 2009 at 6:02 am
want to know if the swine flu vaccine has been tested. I want to have it when it comes out but will i die from it?
games said on November 20, 2009 at 10:02 am
Great post Amanda