The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories
Watching a single woman-in-red denounce President Barack Obama as a noncitizen is not particularly scary. We can imagine any number of complicated life narratives for this woman’s shotgun rage. We may even muster compassion. The more alarming question is, Why are all those other people cheering her on?
Just did a story for The Daily Beast on the latest conspiracy theory in a summer ripe with paranoia. Before the gentleman who warned the government to get its hands off of his Medicare, there was the resurgence of the moon-landing “hoax” and rampant speculation about the real purpose of Swine Flu.
Are conspiracy theories getting worse? The limited research that has been done suggests….well, yes, maybe. Two of the major forces that propel conspiracy theories into popularity both happen to be on the rise at the moment.
The first is what psychologists call anomie—a sense of alienation and anxiety about the future. In 1992, a Rutgers University sociologist named Ted Geortzel decided to try to measure the belief in conspiracy theories among a sample of Americans. He surveyed 348 southern New Jersey residents—a racially diverse group that represented the region overall—to find out what they thought of 10 different conspiracy theories.
The results were a little frightening. Most of the participants believed several of the conspiracies. And people who believed in one theory were likely to believe in others. Some 41% thought it was at least partially true that the Air Force is hiding evidence that the United States has been visited by flying saucers. And 42% said it is partly or definitely true that the FBI was involved in the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr.
In this and other such studies, minorities were significantly more likely to believe in conspiracy theories. But plenty of white people raised their hands, too. In general, people who believe that the average person’s situation is getting worse, that it is unfair to bring a child into the world today, and that most public officials are uninterested in the average man seem to be more likely to also believe outlandish but sinister explanations for major historical events.
Anomie may be more prevalent in times of high unemployment and widespread uncertainty—times like right now, in other words. People feel a generalized sense of malaise and distrust. To relieve that discomfort, it may help to assign blame to an evil mastermind. Which evil mastermind depends on what patterns your brain has previously held to be true.
For some people, the most sensible evil doer will be a liberal, dark-skinned president with foreign relatives and a tendency to see America as something less than perfect. For others, the obvious dark lord would be the opposite—a conservative, pink-skinned vice president with a tendency to see America as perfect. Psychologists have a name for this tendency, albeit a lame one: “confirmation bias.” We pay more attention to theories that support our pre-existing conditions.
Which leads to the second force behind modern conspiracy theories. The Internet (you knew this was coming) makes it effortless to find detailed confirming evidence to support our biases. In his 2009 book, Going to Extremes, legal scholar Cass Sunstein detailed the tendency of like-minded people to become more extreme--after they spend time talking amongst themselves. He should know, now more than ever.
EN said on August 10, 2009 at 6:57 pm
It’s funny but lately I’ve come to believe that the Evil Doer may in fact be a Liberal, dark-skinned president with foreign relatives… but I digress.
Has the belief in conspiracy theories every been higher, or lower? As soon as the truth seems more unlikely then a conspiracy it’s not hard to see where many people will go. Ask any highly educated white woman if she believes in flying saucers? You might, or might not, be surprised at the numbers who believe in such things with little or no evidence offered to support the belief. “It just makes sense”, is the answer I hear most often.
As for people becoming more “extreme” (is that good or bad?) when talking with their own, it’s hardly surprising. Often times people see things they don’t agree with but assume they’re alone and become discouraged. As soon as they find out they’re not alone…
Mike said on August 11, 2009 at 12:47 am
The whole Birther thing- I think it gives them too much credit to call it a phenomenon-seems to demonstrate what happens to a nation that thinks more of television shows and less of reading or education in general. Moreover, in the USA, there is a real tendency to seperate between what is a fact from what is merely a possibility or even an opinion without any evidence whatsoever. A kind of relativism for opinion which leads people to the conclusion that all opinions are somehow equal. So,here was my reaction to the Birther balderdash..
http://nomadicjoe.blogspot.com/2009/07/obama-baby.html
and
http://nomadicjoe.blogspot.com/2009/07/sarahs-secret.html
I felt compelled to add the bottom “punchline” because who knows what these people need as proof?
Terence Dodge said on August 18, 2009 at 1:44 pm
We do need to remember that over half of the population of just this country believes in invisible beings ( angels, demons, fairies ), remember intelligent design promoters.
Now outside this country I think the numbers are much higher for invisible hands moving and or jerking things, cultures about.
Mark Dalley said on August 26, 2009 at 8:06 am
@Terence Dodge
Note that being invisible doesn’t prove non-existence. You could argue for the non-existence of gravity or magnetism on the same basis.
And as for the prevalence of superstition / weird beliefs being higher outside of the USA, I wouldn’t bank on it. To quote Robert Heinlein, Americans are considered crazy anywhere in the world.
games said on November 20, 2009 at 10:05 am
It’s funny but lately I’ve come to believe that the Evil Doer may in fact be a Liberal, dark-skinned president with foreign relatives… but I digress.
DHS said on December 06, 2009 at 12:21 am
I totally agree with Terence Dodge
used car parts said on December 30, 2009 at 3:47 pm
And as for the prevalence of superstition / weird beliefs being higher outside of the USA, I wouldn’t bank on it. To quote Robert Heinlein, Americans are considered crazy anywhere in the world.
david denny said on February 14, 2010 at 7:18 pm
nice i like that this
rapidshare movie said on August 11, 2010 at 5:36 pm
I liked this information very much.
Phil said on August 25, 2010 at 6:18 pm
Conspiracy theories come from both the Left and the Right, but they tend to increase in number and frequency when the opposing party is in power. Of course, members of the far-Left (or the far-Right) claim that their beliefs are, in fact, the “truth” and yet simultaneously call the far-Right’s (or the far-Left’s) beliefs “conspiracy theories”. Perhaps we could ALL do a little more self-reflection on our own beliefs, and not be afraid to point out logical inconsistencies, whether they come from “friend” or “foe"…
Chicago mover said on August 30, 2010 at 4:53 am
I very much agree with Terence Dodge.
“We do need to remember that over half of the population of just this country believes in invisible beings ( angels, demons, fairies ), remember intelligent design promoters.
Now outside this country I think the numbers are much higher for invisible hands moving and or jerking things, cultures about.”
Psikolog said on August 31, 2010 at 1:02 am
i like this post thanks