Toyota’s Perfect Storm
Our brains are wired to fear threats that cause us dread—which is an actual term of art in the risk business. Dread represents all of our evolutionary fears, hopes, lessons, prejudices, and distortions wrapped up in one dark X factor.
In my book, I tried to condense a lot of risk research into one shorthand equation for dread:
Dread = Uncontrollability + Unfamiliarity + Imaginability + Suffering + Scale of Destruction + Unfairness
As I read about the Toyota story, about cars accelerating uncontrollably and Toyota executives watching it all in slow motion, I can’t help but notice that this is a perfect storm of dread. Toyota has a very big problem, if that wasn’t already obvious. In addition to the actual, literal problem of a small number of cars going haywire, there is the psychological problem—which may be the bigger one.
A brief status check:
*Uncontrollability: Off the charts.
The brain does not like things it cannot control (which is partly why we fear airplane crashes so much more than car crashes). The idea that your car might suddenly become uncontrollable is, well, scary. To make matters worse, Toyota has not conveyed a consistent message about how to fix the problem—and regain control. The company started off blaming floor mats for the problem. Then, in January, Toyota conceded that there were two separate problems—floor mats, in some cases, and sticky pedals in others. Then there’s this, from an AP story today:
LaHood, in an interview with The Associated Press, defended his department’s handling of the Toyota investigation and said the Japanese automaker was “a little safety deaf” during its probe of the problem. The company was so resistant, LaHood said, that it took a trip from federal safety officials to Japan to “wake them up” to the seriousness of the pedal problems.
*Unfamiliarity: Medium to high.
Most of us are not familiar with how car acceleration works—particularly in modern, high-tech vehicles in which electronic systems now control many functions that used to be handled mechanically. Toyota denies that the electronics are at fault here, but critics of the company are not so confident.
*Imaginability: On the rise.
Thanks to 911 calls like this, in which an off-duty California Highway Patrol Officer asks the dispatcher to pray for him and his family as his Lexus screams towards oncoming cars, we can now imagine what it would feel like to be in this situation. Imagining a threat can make it feel more likely than it actually is.
*Suffering: Not good at all.
Another similarity to a plane crash: the imagined moment of reflection. We realize that with this kind of risk, there may be a period of time between when we realize we cannot slow down and when the car comes rolling (or crashing) to a stop. That is a scary concept. The brain is wired to avoid suffering, which explains why we fear cancer more than we fear heart attacks—which we assume will come on with less warning and less suffering.
*Scale of Destruction: Could be worse.
This is one area which Toyota can use to its advantage. So far, the chances of this happening remain pretty small. And Jim Lentz, the president of Toyota USA, stressed this point on FOX today:
This sticky pedal is very, very rare, and it comes on over time. So, it’s not something that one day you get in your car and you start to have a throttle that starts to stick. It may be slow to respond, to come back. Eventually, it may start to be a little bit sticky or a little bit rough.
But the fact that the company has had to expand the number of cars facing a recall makes the problem feel less contained than it probably is.
*Unfairness: So-So
People buy Toyotas because they are a sure thing. They are safe, reliable and easy to drive. The acceleration problem is a direct affront to all those values. So the risk feels more unfair than if, for example, this were a problem confined to, say, cherry red high-performance race cars.
For now, the recall affects the following cars, according to Toyota. :
* 2005-2010 Avalon
* 2009-2010 RAV4
* 2007-2010 Camry
* 2008-2010 Sequoia
* 2009-2010 Corolla
* 2005-2010 Tacoma
* 2008-2010 Highlander
* 2007-2010 Tundra
* 2009-2010 Matrix
* 2009-2010 VENZA
* 2004-2009 Prius
If you’re a lucky owner, go here for more info. Usually, the more you know, the less you dread…
JEP said on February 04, 2010 at 4:18 pm
Please remind people that they should always know how to put their car into neutral. I had a sticking accelerator on my Mazda3 right after I purchased the car in 2007. It happened 3 times in the space of my first month of ownership and during the last incident the brakes didn’t work but I was able to put the car into neutral before I rear-ended another car on a highway. I came within 2 car lengths of hitting the other car. The problem with mine was the floor mats from the dealer had not been installed correctly and were holding the post under the accelerator pedal so that it would not release. Which is probably why the brakes didn’t work either, the floor mat was holding that post from being depressed. Anyway what ever the cause, neutral takes all power away from acceleration.
Amanda said on February 04, 2010 at 6:22 pm
Thank you, JEP. This is some badly needed pragmatic talk right here. Here is some more—from Consumer Reports:
How to stop a runaway car: Five steps that can save your life
What should you do if your car suffers a sudden and unintended acceleration such as the problem that has triggered Toyota’s massive auto recall? Here’s our advice from the Consumer Reports Auto Test Center.
1. Brake firmly. Do not pump the brakes. Do not turn off the engine yet, because doing so would disable the power assist for your steering and brakes.
2. Shift the transmission into Neutral. Don’t worry if the engine revs up alarmingly - most modern cars have rev-limiters to protect it, and this move will put you in back in control of your vehicle.
3. Steer to a safe location and come to a full stop.
4. Shut off the engine with the transmission still in Neutral.
5. Finally, shift the transmission into Park or, with a manual transmission, set the emergency brake. Then breathe deep and call for help. Do not attempt to drive the car.
Memorize the above steps to prepare for the rare chance that you might experience unintended acceleration. Better yet, practice them in a safe location at low speeds until you feel comfortable with them. They could save your life.
http://blogs.consumerreports.org/cars/2010/01/how-to-stop-a-runaway-car-five-steps-that-can-save-your-life-toyota-sua.html
*Note from me: Everything we know about the brain suggests that this last bit is very important. If you want to seriously prepare yourself for this ordeal, you must practice it. Your brain will not do this under stress unless it has had muscle-memory practice.
Carol said on February 05, 2010 at 12:58 pm
This is why I still love driving an old school standard transmission. The gas pedal and or brake can do whatever they want to do. I can always control the transmission.
Question… do the pedal break and the emergency break work on the same system? If one goes out is there any chance the other one is going to work?
Tony Toews said on February 08, 2010 at 6:26 pm
I thought one problem was that there was no key on some models. Just an RF fob which presence then enabled a start button. And to turn the motor off you had to hold down the start button for three+ seconds.
http://catless.ncl.ac.uk/Risks/25.82.html#subj1
Which is *COMPLETELY* non intuitive.
Tony Toews said on February 08, 2010 at 6:30 pm
Amanda, now note that your step #2 in your reply to Jet does not work according to the comp.risks article. “c) The transmission was some mix of manual and automatic, with a series of gates to keep you from mis-shifting. Apparently there is no clutch petal.”
And this was a loaner vehicle so the driver was unfamiliar with it.
Again something that is completely non intuitive.
David Ropeik said on February 27, 2010 at 11:50 am
Actually one of the biggest risk perception factors working against Toyota is Trust, or the lack thereof. The less we trust the people or companies exposing us to a risk, or talking to us about it, the more afraid we will be. And lack of trust usually trumps all the other psychological risk perception factors you cite. This is why Toyota’s focus has been on apologizing and why their ads state they want to rebuilod trust in the company. Of course, it will tkae more than words to rebuild that trust.
The remarkable lesson from Toyota is how yet another smart company can be so self-protective and defensive that they fail to see the importance of trust until they damage it, at far greater expense than had they dealt with their defects forthrightly upfront.
I posted a blog on this at http://www.cnbc.com/id/35479126
Doug said on April 22, 2010 at 9:18 am
Toyota has lost the confidence of most customers after all the recent problems - I wonder if they are the only having problems or are the only that have the courage to say it public they have trouble and called people to repair their cars.
Chris said on July 09, 2011 at 10:55 am
A wise man said , there is nothing to fear but fear itself,
Nothing is 100% but its how we handle the risk .