Amanda Ripley Author of The Unthinkable

Mike Seibel said on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 pm

Amanda,

I read your article with great interest, as cognitive biases and heruistics are an interest area of mine.  As an acquisition cost analyst for DoD programs, I deal with the uncertainty bias often.  Many analysts deal it by resorting to elegant mathmatical and statistical solutions—precision as a substitute for accuracy.

I was wondering if you could give me your references to the studies that found that most people prefer pain to uncertainty?  I would like to
find out more about this.

I think that the following quote pretty well sums up the uncertainty situation.

“We must accept that in the end all estimates are judgments, hopefully made by experienced individuals who are motivated and unfettered in their task.”  Fred Raymond, in “Quantify Risk and Manage Cost and Schedule”, Acquisition Review Quarterly, Spring 1999.

Thanks,

Mike

lebon said on September 27, 2009 at 5:40 pm

After reading this article and reading your name at the end of the article i was amused by the fact that i had really enjoyed the article on surviving disasters that i used to teach my students some english lessons.
Just to tell you thanks for your work and your style of writing that gives me lots of insight ...

Amanda said on September 28, 2009 at 7:51 pm

Mike: Thanks for the comment. Very interesting point. “Precision as a substitute for accuracy.” That could be a book unto itself… And the Raymond quote could be on the first page.

Funny you mention that study. It took me and Kaitlyn a long time to find it, but she finally prevailed. I can send it to you if you send me your email address. You can send it to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) and just remind me you want the copy of that article.

Thanks!

Amanda said on September 28, 2009 at 7:52 pm

Thanks for the note, lebon! I am so glad the stories were useful.

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games said on November 20, 2009 at 10:03 am

I read your article with great interest, as cognitive biases and heruistics are an interest area of mine.

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Why this new virus (and all the media coverage about it) is so maddening. My new story in TIME explains why pandemic H1N1 (and the upcoming vaccine) are so hard for the brain to understand. A threat that hovers in the blind spots of our risk calculus.

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