Amanda Ripley Author of The Unthinkable

The Unthinkable is the thinking person's manual for getting out alive.
NPR, National Public Radio

“Engrossing and lucid … An absorbing study of the psychology and physiology of panic, heroism, and trauma … Facing the truth about the human capacity for risk and disaster turns out to be a lot less scary than staying in the dark.”

O, THE OPRAH MAGAZINE
 

Coming soon: Amanda's upcoming book, THE SMART KIDS CLUB, follows her global quest to discover how other countries built smarter kids. To stay in the loop, please join the email list.

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The Quest Begins

There was a time when a reporter on the road just needed a pad, pen and a corporate credit card. But today, as I head to the airport to go to Finland, I feel more like a secret agent. I have a magic pen that records what you are saying (for real!), a tricked-out camera that also captures hi-def video, a shotgun microphone for said camera, a teeny tiny tripod, a webcam, and 57 chargers, USB cables and assorted other crap to go along with all of them. Oh, and no corporate credit card at all whatsoever. Times have changed.

Anyway, despite all this baggage, I am excited. After a year of research, interviews and reckless speculation, I am headed off to investigate how other countries built smarter, cheaper, fairer public schools—all while spending far less money than we do per student. I’ll visit 5 cities in Finland and then 2 cities in Poland. I’ll meet up with the American kids and teachers I’ve been relying on for on-the-ground intel and finally see what they are talking about up close.

Stephen Flynn, a former Coast Guard Commander and one of the country’s leading thinkers on resilience and counterterrorism, has a scathing Foreign Affairs piece out this week about the state of our so-called Homeland Security. Putting aside the tedious debates over cargo screening and liquids in your carry-on, the fundamental flaw in our defenses is the failure to treat regular Americans like grown-ups and enlist them intelligently in this never-ending and complex fight. Ten years after 9/11, American officials continue to overestimate their own ability to prevent terrorism and underestimate the competence of the public. It is a scheme designed to fail, with certainty.

Flynn’s piece is behind a paywall, and it’s worth the price of admission. A few snippets to get you started:

For much of its history, the United States drew on the strength of its citizens in times of crisis, with volunteers joining fire brigades and civilians enlisting or being drafted to fight the nation’s wars. But during the Cold War, keeping the threat of a nuclear holocaust at bay required career military and intelligence professionals operating within a large, complex, and highly secretive national security establishment....By the time the Berlin Wall came down and the Soviet Union collapsed, two generations of Americans had grown accustomed to sitting on the
sidelines and the national security community had become used to operating in a world of its own.

To an extraordinary extent, this same self-contained Cold War–era national security apparatus is what Washington is using today to confront the far different challenge presented by terrorism….This is the wrong approach to protecting the homeland. Even with the help of their state and local counterparts, these federal agencies cannot detect and intercept every act of terrorism….A sidewalk T-shirt vendor, not a police patrol officer, sounded the alarm about Faisal Shahzad’s SUV in his May 2010 car-bombing attempt on New York’s Times Square. Courageous passengers and flight-crew members, not a federal air marshal, helped disrupt the suicide-bombing attempt by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab aboard Northwest Airlines Flight
253 on Christmas Day 2009
....

To improve the nation’s capacity to manage dangers, federal agencies must avoid alienating the very people they are responsible for protecting. Regrettably,Washington’s growing homeland security bureaucracy has largely overlooked the need to garner support from the public. New security measures are advanced without spelling out the vulnerability that they are designed to address. When the TSA introduced full-body x-ray scanners and enhanced pat-downs at U.S. airports last fall, it prioritized public compliance over public acceptance.

The Source Code

Please forgive the plug, but I have to shout from the mountain tops that Ben Ripley, who is a very talented screenwriter in addition to being an excellent brother, has a movie opening this week.

The Source Code, starring Jake Gyllenhaal, Michelle Monaghan and Vera Farmiga, opens April 1. Time travel, disasters, romance…and Jake Gyllenhaal, let me just say again.

Japan and the Cliché of Stoicism

I am sure it is true that the Japanese are resilient, trained as they have been by a long history of disasters. But am I the only one who finds the reporting on their “stoicism” to be a bit much? Today’s Sidney Morning Herald is just one example of hundreds…

“The stranded hotel guests, consisting mainly of the elderly, nod their heads respectfully, ask important questions and receive detailed and respectful answers. Everywhere, Japan’s stoic resilience and its tightly woven community fabric are on display. Outside the hotel front door is a line of locals waiting patiently, as perhaps only Japanese people can.”

There’s something a touch patronizing in all of this, and I suspect it says more about the rest of us than it does about the Japanese. Namely, that we expect panic and hysteria and are awed when we don’t see it. Indeed, we are awed again and again, year after year, in very different places.

A short (and far from comprehensive) history of stoicism in disasters…

Stoicism Hides Suffering”—Los Angeles Times, June 5, 1986, referring to Chilean earthquake, which left nearly 1 million people homeless.

“[T]he Cameroonians appeared amazingly stoic in the face of a natural calamity that claimed at least 1,500 lives and virtually wiped out three villages…. As elsewhere in the Third World, black Africans live close to death, and that shapes their attitudes toward it.”—Los Angeles Times, Aug. 30, 1986, referring to a toxic gas disaster in Cameroon

“Her demeanor was as stoic as that of many other flood-hardened residents here. There was no panic and no hysteria…. Mayor Bartel invoked the spirit of the town’s 19th-century founders.”—New York Times, July 10, 1993, referring to a victim of a flood in Hermann, Missouri

“The Chinese can be very stoic in the face of disaster.”—The Irish Times, Jan. 12, 1998, after an earthquake

Why do we expect people to behave otherwise? When humans endure trauma and stress, they are usually quiet, passive and obedient. That’s not because they are superhuman. That’s because in most circumstances, it is in their survival interest to gather information and help each other.

It reminds me of the way some reporters tend to marvel at how “articulate” an African-American official can be, or how “normal” a gay couple turns out to be. We reveal ourselves with words like these.

Clearly, culture matters. And the Japanese are famously resilient in many ways. Their building codes, preparedness drills and support networks have been—and should continue to be—models for the rest of us. But let’s start expecting decency from the public—and planning for it well before we need it most.

 

Disaster in Japan

Tsunami is a Japanese word, and we are reminded why today. Our thoughts go to the victims and survivors in Japan as we await more information on the 8.9-magnitude quake that rocked the country earlier today.

One story to watch: Initial reports suggest that Japan’s early warning system for earthquakes (Kinkyu Jishin Sokuho in Japanese) did indeed work in some locations. That system, launched in 2007, is the only one of its kind. It only gives people a few seconds warning at the most (via TV and cell-phone alerts), but it is also designed to automatically send warnings to train operators, elevators, construction sites and gas and power facilities. The system is triggered by the fast-moving but less-powerful waves that tend to manifest themselves seconds before the more powerful tremors.

But the more important technology will undoubtedly prove to be the old-fashioned kind. Strict enforcement of rigorous building codes remains the only way to prevent mass casualties in any significant earthquake. From ABC News today:

Last year’s earthquake in Haiti had a magnitude of 7.0—about a hundredth as violent as the 8.9 earthquake in Japan—but the number of deaths was much higher. The Haitian government eventually reported a death toll of more than 200,000 people. Scientists said Haiti was as much a victim of poverty as geology; it could not afford to build better housing.

About Amanda Ripley

Author of
The Unthinkable
& contributor to Time.

Amanda Ripley, a longtime TIME Magazine contributor, is an investigative journalist who writes about human behavior and public policy. Her book, The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes — and Why, is the first major book to explain how the brain works in disasters — and how we can learn to do better. It has been published in 15 countries.

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